Since February 2022 at the latest, internationally active companies and entrepreneurs have been painfully aware that political risks are significant. We know from behavioral research that people underestimate events that are unlikely but have a major impact. In addition to the huge impact on the lives of many people, these events will also massively change the business environment of many companies – even in uninvolved jurisdictions.

2024 will be nerve-wracking for supporters of democracy and the rule of law. Several elections around the globe will require a reassessment of the (geo)political risks of all players: states, individuals, economically active companies, foundations and charitable organizations.

June 2 Mexico

One thing is certain: the next president of Mexico will be a woman. Claudia Sheinbaum and Xochitl Galvez are running for the office. Sheinbaum is the former mayor of Mexico City and a protégée of the current populist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Galvez is backed by a coalition of opposition parties. Both promise a more business-friendly policy than that of their predecessor. But promising does not necessarily mean delivering. It is almost certain that Claudia Sheinbaum will win the race. The presidential election is not the only thing to consider. Mexicans will also elect the two chambers of Congress as well as nine state governors, several local parliaments and other local offices. It is important to assess the impact of the elections as a whole.

June 6 – 9: European elections

400 million EU citizens will elect a new European Parliament with 720 MEPs. This election also determines who will preside over the European Commission.
Now that nationalist parties have made gains in several EU countries, it is to be expected that the EU Parliament will also move in this direction. For example, the right-wing nationalist group “Identité et Démocratie” (ID) is expected to gain seats. “Europe Elects”, an information platform based on verifiable election data, estimates that it could become the third strongest force in the EU Parliament. An EU Parliament that is against the EU? Hardly, because even then its share would remain below 15% of the seats. But the other groupings will need much more coordination.

November 5: USA

The most important election for the world is the presidential election in the USA.  After Donald Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire primary and even in South Carolina, the home state of his last contender, Nikki Haley, a remake of Trump versus Biden is becoming almost certain. The baseline situation is that both candidates are not very popular due to their advanced age. Joe Biden sometimes appears shaky in his appearances. Donald Trump often makes a confused impression. However, this does not change the latter’s strategy of authoritarian intimidation, threats and belittling of all those who do not support him. Experience shows that authoritarian politicians end up doing what many dismiss as their exaggerated propaganda. The evidence is overwhelming: in January 2021, Donald Trump tried by all means to prevent the confirmation of Joe Biden’s election victory in the US Senate. He promises to be a dictator on his first day as president. His Agenda 2025 sounds suspiciously like a plan to take over the institutions, as Poland and Hungary and even worse examples have done in the past.

Would the institutions of the United States withstand his renewed attempts? What is certain is that his presidency would reassess the alliance with the European partners – NATO and the EU. What would “America First” mean without Europe? What would it mean for the international liberal order that the US built with its allies after the Second World War? What would an alternative order be?

One thing is certain: In the new age of all-determining geopolitics, business and politics can no longer be separated.

What needs to be done?

It is to be feared that the world after 2024 will be less democratic and more populist. The further fragmentation of economic areas with less free trade and more industrial policy is clear to see. As a company, entrepreneur and individual, you need to be prepared for the unpredictable. Developing scenarios with associated strategies can help you to find your way in any world. Develop realistic scenarios with all the facets they entail. Based on this, develop strategies with which you can prosper in the various scenarios, both professionally and personally.

Do you need support?

• for your assessment of the geopolitical situation?
• For an assessment of how geopolitics will affect your business?
• The development of realistic scenarios with their multifaceted consequences?
• The development of adapted strategies?

For more information, please feel free to contact us and we will be happy to help you.